Forum > STAR 2015

2015 MSTA Raffle Bike Announcement!

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Brick:
Yea I too usually just consider that I'm supporting MY club... THE BEST CLUB!!



--- Quote from: Patmo on December 19, 2014, 07:56:42 PM ---In my case it's not going to matter how many chances I buy, the chance of me winning is still the same......zero :-*




I just consider it as a donation.

--- End quote ---

96viffer:

--- Quote from: touringman on December 19, 2014, 07:20:10 PM ---Choon, I'm no math whiz, as I'll leave that to two of our children that teach that subject. It seems in the example you gave you are talking ratios, rather than chances of winning. If there are 1.5k tickets sold, my chances of winning are 1 in 1,500, and correspondingly, with 3k sold, my chances are 1 in 3k. Therefore selling fewer tickets, yet creating the same revenue, actually enhances the members chances of being a winner, if they buy the customary number of tickets! Syd :)

--- End quote ---

Syd, you're absolutely right if you bought the same number of tickets as in previous years that your chances of winning will probably double, but you also spent twice as much as you previously did. The assumption that we went on is that most folks will spend about the same amount of money this year as in previous years, so they'll get half as many tickets. And since there'll be fewer tickets overall, the odds of winning will remain roughly the same. In my example, previously my odds were 8 out of 3000. Now my odds are 4 out of 1500. That's the same odds for the same amount of money spent.

Is that a good assumption? We think it's a reasonable one. Of course there'll be those who are totally turned off at having to pay twice as much for a ticket and decide not to buy any, and there'll be some who'll buy the same number of tickets as in previous years, the price notwithstanding.

- Choon

stevegrab:
Choon good points all around. I hadn't thought about the angle of people spending the same amount on tickets.

The chance of winning makes sense too.

brider:
 ;D Don't over think this!  Just buy lots and lots of tickets!

ipnman:
+1 on that Bill :)

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